In case you were wondering whether the Prop 8 defenders believe their arguments are sound, wonder no more: They have gone so far as to seek, from Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy (who decides such applications for the Ninth Circuit, of which California is a part), an emergency stay of the California court’s order to allow a delayed broadcast of the trial proceedings. The trial is to start tomorrow, with the youtube broadcast to be offered on time delay (maddeningly, we don’t know when the video will be available; later the same day, or early the following day).
Does this action sound to you like that of a group confident in the strength of its arguments? Me, neither. The stay application cites the prospect of witness intimidation and harassment if this show trial is broadcast. Translation: We’re much better off if people can’t see that we have no good arguments against allowing gay couples the same right to marry that heterosexual couples take for granted.
One interesting tea leaf to read here: Justice Kennedy is among the Court’s most consistent defenders of the First Amendment, reading its guarantees quite broadly. Thus, if he does grant the stay, the prospects for ultimate success at the Supreme Court dim. His vote is likely decisive. And Kennedy probably can’t dodge the issue by asking the full Court to weigh in, because the other eight justices would likely split 4-4, throwing it right back to him.1 There’s something fitting about Kennedy’s role here: He can decide this, all by himself. We might as well say that about marriage equality, generally.
- I know, this is much too simple, because this isn’t the same as deciding the marriage issue on the merits. And the First Amendment issue could split the Court in a different way. Yes, but if Bush v. Gore taught us anything, it’s that theory and doctrine will be subordinated to political result when the chips are down. So I don’t expect the conservative wing of the Court to do anything that would diminish, even hypothetically, the case against marriage equality which they may soon have to hear. ↩